Five Numbers That Explain the Packers’ Loss To the Bears

The Green Bay Packers took on the rival Chicago Bears for the second time in just three weeks, with the fate of the NFC North on the line on a windy December night at Soldier Field.

Yes, these two teams saw each other only a few days ago, but they were already very different: the Packers were without star defensive end Micah Parsons for the rest of the season after he tore his ACL against the Denver Broncos. Missing key players would remain a dominant theme for Green Bay throughout this game.

The game started out just as chippy as everyone expected when the Bears kicked the ball off to the Packers and committed unsportsmanlike conduct to add 15 yards to Green Bay's field position, much to the chagrin of Bears fans who had already started the “Green Bay Sucks” chants.

Jordan Love left the game midway through the second quarter after a helmet-to-helmet hit and was ruled out for the game with a concussion. Malik Willis took over and led the Packers to their second field goal of the half, making it 6-0 before they headed back into the locker room.

The Bears cut the lead to just three after their first drive of the second half. The Packers got into the red zone yet again but failed to score — a theme for the evening — when Josh Jacobs lost a fumble.

Still, they ultimately extended their lead to 13-3 on a pass from Willis to Romeo Doubs. The teams swapped field goals to keep it a 10-point contest, and the Bears pulled to within seven at the two-minute warning, all but sealing their fate unless they could recover an onside kick, which is nearly impossible under the new rules.

Well, guess what happened? Agonizing special teams have plagued Green Bay's play for a decade, and they added another one to their house of horrors. The Bears capitalized, taking the game to an unlikely overtime, where Caleb Williams threw a beautiful deep pass to D.J. Moore to seal the victory.

Here are five numbers to break down the game.

3

In the first half, the Bears got three 15-yard penalties for unsportsmanlike conduct or roughing the passer. Knowing just how tense this rivalry is and how much is at stake, everyone expected this game to have plenty of aggression and some extra-curricular activity after the snap.

All of this started on the first kickoff, when a Bears special teamer body-surfed over a scrum of players on the return. Chicago later gifted Green Bay’s offense a third-down conversion with a roughing the passer flag.

However, the most impactful flag of the first half came in the second quarter. On a sack, a Bears defender’s helmet collided with Jordan Love’s, knocking the starting QB out of the game and forcing backup Malik Willis into action. Willis did well, converting a fourth down on his way to a field goal drive.

It wasn’t just these flags that hurt the Bears, but penalties throughout the course of the game. They accumulated 10 penalties for 105 yards. Chicago repeatedly gifted the Packers multiple opportunities to capitalize on their mistakes.

0/5

Green Bay moved the ball but couldn't score, going 0-for-5 in the red zone. A large part of why the Packers lost last week was their inability to convert red-zone trips into touchdowns, and that trend continued.

It started on the first drive of the game when the Packers offense opted to go for it on fourth-and-one in the red zone and turned the ball over on an incomplete pass. While the Bears did the exact same thing shortly thereafter, Green Bay's offense would find its way into Chicago's red zone twice more in the first half and settle for three on both occasions.

The Packers controlled the ball most of the half, recording 178 yards of offense, but they wouldn’t have a touchdown to show for it.

In the third quarter, Jacobs fumbled near the goal line, with Nahshon Wright turning the ball over, and Green Bay's offense again came away with no points in the red zone. They would again fail in the fourth quarter, settling for three yet again to make it a 10-point game.

In a divisional game in the cold weather this late in the season, touchdowns were at a premium. A two-touchdown lead would almost certainly result in a win. However, instead of even getting one touchdown, Green Bay's offense kept it as just a one-score game.

While the defense upheld their end of the bargain, it is a bit unfair to expect them to hold a high-powered Bears offense out of the end zone for the entire game.

84

Romeo Doubs was Green Bay’s best receiver this game, finishing with 84 yards receiving and the first touchdown of the game. Last time these two teams faced off, Doubs was rendered stat-less, and in his last four games, he had just 77 yards.

The past few weeks had been a non-factor, and this week, when the team needed him the most, he came up the biggest.

He started hot, accounting for 51 of Love’s 71 passing yards and half of his completions. He looked to thrive off the mismatch of C.J. Gardner-Johnson, and he particularly took advantage of it on the touchdown when he burst past Johnson on his way into the end zone.

With the offense dealing with injuries to Love, Christian Watson, and Jayden Reed, and the load management of Jacobs, they needed someone to step up and make the big plays. That's exactly what they got in Doubs this week.

Although he would have an incredible day receiving, his night ended on a whimper when he was unable to recover an onside kick, giving the Bears the ball back with 1:56 and a chance to tie the game.

8

The Packers offense had to get creative to move the ball, using carries by eight different players. With injuries ravaging the entire offense, Matt LaFleur needed to get the ball in the hands of his playmakers without risking turnovers.

He was able to do just this, getting big contributions from all three running backs, both his quarterbacks, and three wide receivers. The Packers ran the ball a total of 43 times for 192 yards, with backup running back Emanuel Wilson leading the team with 14 carries and 82 yards.

With your premier pass rusher already down, losing your quarterback, TE3, and seeing injuries to various running backs and receivers, it takes a lot of ingenuity to overcome this on the road against a division leader.

3.1%

At the two-minute warning in the fourth quarter, the Packers had just a 3.1% chance of losing. Somehow, from here, they bungled their chance, essentially losing the division and the No. 2 seed.

After Love got injured, many expected the Packers to lose this game. Instead, they led until almost the final snap of regulation. It looked like the Bears had taken too much time off the clock, forcing them into an onside kick instead of being able to kick it deep.

Somehow, the Bears were able to recover the onside kick after Doubs bobbled it. The Bears would go on to score with just 20 seconds on the clock to tie it from down seven.

Willis had the offense moving in overtime, but a fumble on fourth down at the edge of field goal range gave the ball back to the Bears, who capitalized soon thereafter.

While the Packers had injuries throughout the game and had valid excuses to struggle, they had the chance to win and have nobody to blame but themselves for the loss.