Are the Lynx About To Go On Another Championship Run?

After the Los Angeles Sparks beat the Minnesota Lynx 68-51 in the regular season finale, Cheryl Reeve answered a question about Minnesota’s preparation for their first-round matchup against the Phoenix Mercury.

“I think the great thing for us is that we don’t have to be anything different than what we already are,” she said, “and that team is a great defensive team.”

With the loss to the Sparks, the 30-10 Lynx officially finished with their best win total in franchise history, including a 16-4 record at home. Minnesota’s 30 wins were good enough to earn the 2-seed in the WNBA playoffs and guarantee home-court advantage against everyone except the top-seeded New York Liberty.

Minnesota’s successful regular season sets it up to make a deep playoff run, especially when comparing their regular season accomplishments to past champions.

First, the Lynx won the Commissioners Cup, or the WNBA’s in-season tournament. While the WNBA has only had the tournament for four years, the Commissioner’s Cup champions' playoff success is somewhat surprising.

The Seattle Storm won the inaugural cup in 2021 and finished as the fourth seed that season. However, the eventual champion Mercury bounced the Storm out of the playoffs in overtime of a single elimination game, 85-80.

In 2022, the Las Vegas Aces won the Commissioner's Cup and finished with the top seed in the playoffs. They went 8-2 in the playoffs and won the championship. A year later, the Liberty won the Commissioner’s Cup as the 2-seed and advanced to the finals before falling 3-1 to the Aces.

While the sample size is small, the past two Commissioner’s Cup winners have made the finals and finished the regular season with a top-two seed in the playoffs. Winning the cup this season, the Lynx indicates that they will advance deep into the playoffs.

Statistically, the Lynx have also set themselves up well compared to the past champions. Looking back over the past 10 seasons, the eventual finals champions have similar league rankings in five specific categories.

Over the past ten seasons, the eventual WNBA champions have finished with the No. 1 offensive rating seven times and were in the top three nine times. The only exception was the 2021 Chicago Sky, who finished their season at 16-16 and had the ninth-ranked offense.

The best defensive team in the regular season has also won four of the past five championships. Seven of the last ten champions ranked either first or second. Again, the 2021 Sky are the major outlier, finishing tenth. The 2022 Aces and the 2019 Mystics finished sixth in defensive rating during their championship runs. Still, they also had the No. 1 offense for those respective seasons.

Historically, championship teams have also shot well from three. Even with the significant increase in three-point shooting volume over the past ten seasons, eight of the past ten champions have ranked first or second in three-point percentage during the regular season. However, the Sky ranked seventh in their 2021 Cinderella run. The 2015 Lynx, who ranked fourth, are the other outlier.

It also appears that turnover volume correlates with championships. Six of the past ten champions ranked fourth or lower in turnovers per game. However, the 2021 Sky, 2020 Storm, 2018 Storm, and 2017 Lynx ranked sixth or worse in turnovers per game. The worse turnovers interestingly correlate to a No. 1 offense with the two Storm teams and Lynx. Again, the Sky is the outlier.

Finally, the win percentage is largely correlated, mainly because of the past WNBA’s playoff structure of giving top seeds “bye weeks.” But of the past ten champions, eight of them had over a 72% win percentage, with only the 2021 Sky at 50% and the 2015 Lynx at 65%

With the four statistical areas, offensive rating, defensive rating, three-point percentage, and turnovers, we can add up the rankings and divide by categories (4) to get a single number of average ranking. After doing the math, a trend emerges. Except for the Sky, every champion has an average rating of 3.25 or lower in those categories. The 2021 Sky are the outlier at 8.5, so we will remove them from the sample and take an average of the remaining nine champions, which ends up being 2.42.

So, where do the Lynx stack up this season?

At 30-10 (75%), they check the winning percentage box of winning over 72% of their games.

Offensively, the Lynx finished fourth for the season and second overall defensively. They also had the top three-point percentage and were seventh in turnovers. However, adding the categories up and dividing them leaves an unfortunate 3.5 average.

That would rank 0.25 over the 3.25 average of past champions (excluding the 2021 Sky) and a full 1.08 over average of the past nine champions (excluding the 2021 Sky). Therefore, if the Lynx wins the championship, they will be a significant outlier compared to past winners.

While the numbers may look grim, the bright side is that the top-seeded Liberty is doing the same exercise and also finished with a 3.5 ranking. The 3-seed Sun finished at 3.75. The only team below the 3.25 threshold this season is the 4-seed Aces, who finished with a 3.0 average.

That could mean the Aces statistically match past champions. However, their 67.5% winning percentage reflects that they would be an outlier in regular-season winning percentage.

All this is to say that there are multiple bona fide contenders for the WNBA championship. While no team really fits as a true favorite, the Lynx won the in-season tournament, and their stats reflect a borderline championship team. Coupled with their winning percentage, that could point to a deep playoff run.

With no clear favorite in the WNBA and no team dominating any of the categories, this season will go down as an outlier in my analysis. However, one thing is certain: The Lynx know who they are and expect to bring home a championship.